Uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by summer are set to drive copper prices higher, according to analysts at Citi, which has turned bullish on the metal for the first time in 2026. In a note published on Monday, Citi analysts forecast the price of copper to hit $14,500 per metric ton next month and $15,000 per metric ton within a year. Citi’s one-year forecast would mark a more than 10% increase from a benchmark 3-month copper price of $13,636 per ton as of 7:38 a.m. ET on Monday, according to London Metal Exchange data. Similarly, analysts at Goldman Sachs on Monday raised their year-end copper price target to $13,735 per metric ton from $12,465 previously. The U.S. will decide whether to impose tariffs on refined copper imports at the end of next month. Uncertainty over the decision has supported the LME copper price as U.S. stockpiles of the metal continue to swell. “We anticipate further strategic ambiguity from US policymakers rather than a definitive announcement of a tariff and believe that the administration will not impose a refined copper tariff but will avoid stating this definitively to maximize incentives to maintain excess copper inventory in the US,” Citi analysts wrote. Citi added that a potential lack of tariff clarity after June could become a headwind to prices, but a “supportive physical outlook and our expectation for a Hormuz reopening by the summer” should offset any downside impact. Demand for copper is considered a proxy for economic health. The base metal is critically important to the energy transition ecosystem and is integral to the manufacturing of electric vehicles, power grids and wind turbines. Electrification, grid expansion and data center build-outs all require large amounts of copper for wiring, power transmission and cooling infrastructure. Last year saw the metal track its biggest annual price rise since 2009, driven by supply disruptions, a weakening U.S. dollar, improving expectations for Chinese economic growth, as well as blockbuster spending on artificial intelligence. While copper prices are elevated by historical standards, Citi cautioned that the metal remains subject to bearish tail risks from a “sustained and unstable” situation in the Middle East. In addition, “copper inventory levels and end-use consumption remain sensitive to interest rates and expectations”, the analysts added. Inflation fears are rippling through industrial metals. Here’s where prices could go next .
