Don’t expect the stock market’s momentum in first six months of 2026 to wane in the back half of the year, according to CFRA. Chief investment strategist Sam Stovall laid out several reasons why stocks can continue marching higher, eventually reaching his 7,730 S & P 500 target. They include: 24 all-time highs for the S & P 500 in the first half through Friday: That, according to Stovall, is among the top 20 first-half totals in record highs going back to World War II. “In 2H of these prior top-20 years, the S & P 500 gained an additional 6% and rose in price 80% of the time. Broadening market leadership: While gains were largely concentrated in semiconductor stocks for much of the first half, other parts of the market began participating more in June — including financials and health care. This is “a constructive sign that the bull market can remain intact,” said Stovall. Declining oil prices: West Texas Intermediate crude traded near $70 a barrel on Monday, far below its peak above $110 seen earlier this year. “The speed at which oil prices retraced their war-driven spike has been encouraging, which should be a 2H tailwind for consumer spending and corporate earnings,” said Stovall. Indeed, stocks have been able to weather all kinds of headwinds so far this year. At one point in the first half, the S & P 500 was down as much as 7.3% year to date before recovering, as investors feared oil prices would stay elevated. Since that closing trough in late March, the benchmark is up 15.9%. .SPX YTD mountain SPX year to date Investors have also been rattled by worries over the sustainability of corporate spending on artificial intelligence. But those concerns proved short-lived thanks to strong earnings reports from companies such as Nvidia and Micron Technology . Because of that, Stovall thinks the S & P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 21 is “reasonable.” “1H can be characterized as an earnings-driven rally rather than one driven by multiple expansion, which is generally a healthier and more sustainable foundation for a bull market,” the long-time strategist said. What to buy Stovall likes industrials and technology in the second half, citing persistent AI demand. The S & P 500 industrial sector has climbed 16.8% year to date, led by a 101% surge in Generac, for example. Tech has rallied another 25.8% in 2026, led by AI-linked names. Sandisk is almost an 8-bagger in just six months, soaring 780%, while Micron, Intel , Western Digital , Seagate Technology , Dell Technologies and Marvell Technology have all jumped more than 200%.
