The June jobs report on Thursday could be more robust than expected due to a strong kick from the World Cup, according to Goldman Sachs.
Nonfarm payrolls are projected to post a gain of 115,000, according to the Dow Jones consensus from economists surveyed, which would be a step down from the sturdy 172,000 growth in May.
But Goldman said private data from Homebase, a small business payroll firm, suggests that the “Beautiful Game” has had at least a modest impact on hiring, contributing about 40,000 positions last month.
The firm’s latest report indicates that while the pace of hiring in June looks down overall, the 11 World Cup hosting cities saw a decline of 1.2% from a year ago, while other cities were off 3.5%. Moreover, Homebase’s data showed hospitality hiring up 9.5%, a possible World Cup-related boost.
“Our historical analysis suggests that the World Cup could boost payroll growth by 40k in June, and that its impact should be concentrated in the leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and trade and transportation sectors,” Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels said in a note.
Consequently, Goldman expects total nonfarm payroll growth of 140,000, which would still fall below the pace of the prior month but significantly better than the 20,000 jobs lost in June 2025.
Goldman also said the count could be higher because prior June payrolls have showed an upward bias on the first of the three estimates. The initial June count was revised lower in each of the past four years.
