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Marine Le Pen’s decision to stay in the race for France’s presidency while appealing her conviction for embezzlement is a high-risk strategy that could eventually help her mainstream opponents who are lagging far behind her in the polls.
The far-right leader’s move to appeal before the Cour de Cassation, France’s highest court, pauses her conviction and suspended sentence handed down by an appeal court earlier on Tuesday. It allows her to run as a candidate for her Rassemblement National party without wearing an electronic tag, pending the final judgment. She will not have to hand the baton to her more polished but less battle-hardened protégé Jordan Bardella, at least not yet.
But it is a massive double gamble.
It risks turning her campaign into a Trump-style fight against an allegedly politicised judiciary and the country’s other institutions rather than the failures of Emmanuel Macron’s 10 years in power, alienating the more mainstream voters she would need to win the second round of the election.
It could also upend the RN’s campaign at the last minute if the Cour de Cassation were to uphold her electronic tag sentence early next year.
The court will come under intense pressure to issue a speedy ruling. Justice delayed in this case really would be justice denied. The first round of the presidential election will take place on April 18, with the run-off two weeks later.
Le Pen was originally found guilty last year for her central role in the misuse of European parliament funds to employ party staff engaged in national political work. She was banned from holding electoral office for five years. Although permitted under the law, the tough penalty was criticised as judicial over-reach and interference in the democratic process.
Tuesday’s appeal court ruling neutralised that criticism by drastically reducing the ban on Le Pen running for office. Michèle Agi, the presiding appeal court judge said the ruling had to take into account the “proportionality” of the sentence and the “link” between the right to stand in election and the voter’s freedom of choice.
On the other hand, the appeal court upheld Le Pen’s conviction for embezzlement and ordered her to spend one year of a three-year prison sentence, two of which are suspended, wearing an electronic tag. In effect, the court handed the question of whether she should run to Le Pen herself. The RN leader had repeatedly asserted in recent months that she would not campaign if obliged to wear a tracking device, which could limit her movements. It would also be a humiliating reminder of her guilt.
Le Pen extricated herself from this self-imposed constraint by lodging a final appeal. It is her legal right. In the French judicial system, she benefits from the presumption of innocence until all appeals are exhausted. But Le Pen has been twice convicted on the facts and the appeal court on Tuesday reaffirmed the gravity of the offence.
The idea that Le Pen is a victim of a politicised judiciary might play well with RN voters, but the French as a whole don’t buy it. Fifty-nine per cent of them said she was being treated like anyone else, according to a recent poll by Odoxa.
There’s a long way to go before the first round of the election. The RN still has the advantage of facing a splintered mainstream opposition struggling to coalesce around a compelling candidate with a fresh agenda.
The RN leader has bought herself some time and may hope to escape a judicial reckoning before polling day. But her probity and suitability for the office of head of state will now be front and centre of this race, as will the question of what she might do if the highest court rules against her just weeks before polling day.
“There’s no scenario where I should not be able to stand in 2027,” she told TF1 television on Tuesday night. “Let’s hope the Cour de Cassation doesn’t make a mistake.”
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