Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella attends the 56th annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 20, 2026.
Denis Balibouse | Reuters
Microsoft is set to report fiscal fourth-quarter results after Wednesday’s closing bell.
Here’s what analysts are looking for, according to LSEG consensus:
- Earnings per share: $4.24 adjusted
- Revenue: $87.62 billion
At that level, analysts are looking for 14.6% growth year over year in the quarter, which ended on June 30. They see growth speeding up a bit to 15.4% in the September quarter.
As of Tuesday’s close, the software maker’s shares have given up about 19% so far in 2026, while the S&P 500 index has gained 8.5%. Investors have squeezed longstanding software stocks this year, acting on fears of disruption from generative artificial intelligence models.
Meanwhile, Microsoft is confronting “some concentration risk” with its OpenAI relationship, especially with the ascent of open-source models, Deutsche Bank analysts, who recommend buying Microsoft stock, said in a note last week. Microsoft said in January that around 45% of its $625 billion in commercial remaining performance obligations were tied to OpenAI.
When it comes to allocating computing capacity, CEO Satya Nadella has been trying to balance the needs of the Azure cloud, research and applications such as the Microsoft 365 Copilot assistant. If researchers get ahold of more AI chips for model training, that means fewer will be available for cloud clients.
Analysts polled by CNBC and StreetAccount are looking for 40% and 40.2% Azure growth at constant currency.
Investors will be looking to see if Microsoft raises its forecast on capital expenditures and finance leases for data center expansion, after Alphabet lifted its 2026 range by $15 billion last week. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha were targeting $190.5 billion from Microsoft, just above the $190 billion guidance from April.
During the quarter, Microsoft introduced a cost-efficient AI coding model, picked LinkedIn executive Dan Shapero to take over the business social network and lowered Xbox Game Pass subscription prices.
Executives are scheduled to discuss the results with analysts and issue guidance on a conference call starting at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Microsoft stock chart.
