Fed likely to hold rates steady: How that impacts consumer costs

The Federal Reserve is on the cusp of a “regime change” after the Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, eliminating a potential obstacle to confirming President Donald Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, to replace him.

Central bankers are expected to hold interest rates steady at their policy meeting next week — likely Powell’s last as chair — doing little to ease consumers’ current affordability challenges.

With an inflation shock, a war with Iran and an uncertain labor market, futures market pricing is implying virtually no chance of a rate cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge. 

Brent crude has surged more than 55% since the Iran war began in late February, triggering price jumps for gasoline and jet fuel. Many employers are putting hiring plans on hold, and consumer confidence is at an all-time low.

“Even if gas spikes were to go away, prices are still higher,” said certified financial planner Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate. “Even if we get back to where we were prior to the Iran conflict, there’s plenty of evidence that this is not the right time to get back to cutting rates.”

The Fed’s benchmark sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also has a knock-on effect on many of the borrowing and savings rates Americans face every day.

Shorter-term rates are closely pegged to the prime rate, which is typically 3 percentage points above the federal funds rate. Longer-term rates are more dependent on inflation expectations and other economic factors.

“Americans are dealing with trillions of dollars in credit cards, auto and student loan debt. Higher interest rates are making that more difficult for them on top of it,” said Rohit Chopra, former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The impact of the Fed’s actions varies significantly across loan types.

For example, 15- and 30-year fixed mortgage rates don’t directly track the Fed but typically follow the lead of long-term Treasury rates. As a result, mortgage rates remain volatile amid mixed signals from Trump on the war with Iran.

Auto loan rates are tied to several factors, including the Fed’s benchmark. But because financing costs remain elevated, new-car buyers are taking on longer loans to keep their monthly payments manageable, according to the latest data from Edmunds.

Federal student loan rates are based in part on the last 10-year Treasury note auction in May. They are fixed for the life of the loan, so most borrowers are somewhat shielded from Fed moves and recent economic uncertainty.

By contrast, most credit cards have a variable rate, so there’s a more direct connection to the Fed’s overnight rate. With the Fed rate expected to remain where it stands, the interest rate on credit card debt is unlikely to come down anytime soon.

Savings rates also tend to be correlated with changes in the target federal funds rate. Therefore, holding that rate unchanged has kept savings yields above the inflation rate, a rare win for savers.

Even though central bankers have indicated that their goal of stabilizing prices and maximizing employment is the reason they want to hold rates steady for now, rate-setting decisions could change under new leadership.

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