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European allies are seeking clarifications from Washington over plans to remove key military assets from Nato’s rapid response force, raising concerns about the alliance’s ability to deter and tackle Russian aggression.
The US has in recent weeks presented allies with detailed proposals to reduce the military capabilities it assigns to the Nato Force Model, the alliance’s pool of forces and equipment that can be deployed within 10 days to respond to a crisis, according to people familiar with the discussions.
German newspaper Die Welt late on Wednesday published a leaked list of the assets Washington wants to withdraw, including one of the two US aircraft carrier strike groups at present assigned to Nato and all submarines capable of launching cruise missiles such as Tomahawks.
The proposals would also reduce the number of US P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, which are used to track submarines; cut aerial refuelling aircraft from 79 to 63; and reduce the number of F-16 and F-15E fighter jets assigned to Nato from 153 to 99.
The planned cuts come as President Donald Trump presses ahead with efforts to scale back the US military presence in Europe and shifts its attention to Asia and the western hemisphere.
In recent weeks, Washington announced plans to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany and cancel the deployment of a long-range fire battalion in the country scheduled to arrive later this year.
Shifting the military burden to European allies is due to dominate talks at Nato’s annual summit in Ankara next month.
Many allies say they lack clarity over the scope and timing of Washington’s plans. Defence experts and some officials in European countries have warned that Russia could invade a Nato country within the next two to three years.
German military and intelligence officials have estimated that such an attack could happen by 2029. But the commander of Latvia’s armed forces, General Kaspars Pudāns, told the FT this week that Russia could exploit a “window of opportunity” by the end of 2028 to invade the Baltic states, after gaining an edge in drone warfare over Nato countries.
“We still don’t know if [these reductions] will happen in two, three or five years,” said one European official.
A second European official said that US interlocutors had sought to calm capitals by saying that many of the capabilities affected already existed in European militaries, except at a smaller scale.
The cuts to Nato’s rapid response force are “a signal that the US is no longer as committed to Europe’s defence as in the past”, said Carlo Masala, professor at Bundeswehr Munich university. “And it is only half of the picture, the other half being how many troops are going to be pulled out of Europe.”
The Nato Force Model specifies the forces and assets that every ally would provide during the first 10, 30 and 180 days of a conflict or crisis in order to implement Nato’s defence plans.
The list of US assets to be removed, which would affect more maritime power projection than land power, suggests it will weaken deterrence in the Atlantic Ocean and in Nato’s southern flank more than the eastern flank, Masala said.
Matthew Savill, at the Royal United Services Institute in London, a London-based think-tank, said: “The Nato Force Model covers contingency planning, so this just means that the ‘assumed bill’ for support is changing.”
The White House referred a request for comment to the Pentagon.
The Pentagon referred to a statement from the US European Command in which it said that Elbridge Colby, the under-secretary of defence for policy, was leading the overhaul “to ensure Europe takes primary responsibility for its own conventional defence in response to the security threats it faces”. It added that Alexander Velez-Green, Chief of Staff and senior counsellor to Colby, notified Allies during a meeting of defence policy officials in Brussels on May 22.
“There has been an unhealthy codependence in the Nato Force Model on US forces,” General Alexus Grynkewich, commander of the US European Command, said in the statement. “The change is also premised on the fact that non-US Nato Allies are increasingly capable of fielding the preponderance of forces required to defend the Alliance.”
Nato said: “Historically, there has been an over-reliance on US forces and capabilities. But as Europe and Canada are investing more in defence and developing more capabilities, the balance of responsibility can shift. This change strengthens Nato’s defence plans by reducing over-dependence on one ally and is a reflection of a broader shift happening within the alliance.”
“This is about putting Nato on a more sustainable footing for the decades to come,” it added.
Additional reporting by Charles Clover in London and James Politi in Washington
