Trump all in on Darline Graham in South Carolina, as losses pile up

President Donald Trump on Tuesday will test his endorsement power as South Carolina GOP Sen. Darline Graham squares off against Rep. Ralph Norman in a special Republican primary runoff election, in her bid to replace her late brother Lindsey Graham for a full six-year Senate term.

The race pits two Trump allies against each other. Norman is a hardline member of the House Freedom Caucus. But his initial support for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in the 2024 GOP presidential primaries and his tendency to raise fiscal concerns about some of the president’s priorities have at times strained his relationship with Trump. The president throughout this election cycle has targeted fellow Republican lawmakers who have opposed him or his policies.

Graham, who has a brief political track record, has enjoyed Trump’s enthusiastic support since the days after her brother died unexpectedly in July. Trump, who had a close relationship with Lindsey Graham, traveled to South Carolina to campaign with Graham last week and held a tele-rally for her on Monday.

The winner of Tuesday’s runoff will face Democrat Annie Andrews in November’s general election. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter labels the race “Solid R.” Lindsey Graham was favored to win reelection before his death.

“[T]here is nobody better to honor the legacy of her beloved brother, Lindsey. Darline, who comes from an absolutely incredible family, has been a WINNER all of her life, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement in the Special Election for U.S. Senate in South Carolina,” Trump posted to TruthSocial on Monday.

Trump’s full-throated support of Graham, however, could prove risky for the president who is the de facto head of the party and who has traditionally played kingmaker, but has suffered a series of recent losses.

Graham, who had never been elected to office prior to her appointment by South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster in July to serve out the remainder of her brother’s term, suffered an embarrassing moment in a debate with Norman last week.

Asked to comment on the importance of Taiwan to U.S. interests, Graham copped that she was “not that informed on national security,” raising questions about her fitness for the job. Graham has since defended her performance, arguing during an appearance on Fox News that she doesn’t “speak politician.”

Norman, who launched an unsuccessful bid for South Carolina governor earlier this year, seized on the moment, casting himself as the proven conservative in the race.

“My opponent is unknown. She’s being backed by the Washington establishment,” Norman said in a recent appearance on Fox News. “She’s a propped up candidate. You could tell that during the debates. This is an important job. There is no training on the job that you can effectively do.”

The stakes are high for Trump, some of whose picks in South Carolina, as well as other parts of the country, have fallen short of late.

Trump in May endorsed South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in the GOP primary for governor, though he eventually co-endorsed state Attorney General Alan Wilson, who bested Evette in a runoff in June. GOP lawmakers in the South Carolina legislature also dealt a blow to Trump in May when they scuttled his push for partisan mid-decade redistricting.

Elsewhere, too, Trump’s once-powerful endorsement has come up short. Rep. Randy Feenstra, R-Iowa, in June lost to Zach Lahn in the state’s GOP gubernatorial primary, despite notching support from Trump.

A Trump-endorsed candidate lost this month in Wyoming’s Republican gubernatorial primary. And two candidates Trump had backed for the House in Florida — Rep. Cory Mills and Catalina Lauf — lost their respective primaries earlier this month.

In total, 10 Trump-endorsed candidates have lost their races this election cycle, equal to the total number of Trump-backed candidates who lost in 2018, 2020 and 2024 primaries combined, according to a CNN analysis.