DALLAS, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 09: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks on stage on the first day of the 2026 Republican National Convention at the American Airlines Center on September 09, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. U.S. President Donald Trump will headline the Republican National Committee’s first-ever midterm convention as he aims to highlight his administration’s achievements and rally support for GOP candidates just two months before the upcoming elections being held on November 3. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
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U.S. President Donald Trump has promised every adult American citizen a $5,000 “dividend” if the Republicans are victorious at the upcoming midterm elections.
Americans will vote in the midterms in early November, with the Democrats currently projected to win control of the House of Representatives.
Such a result would likely create barriers to Trump’s legislative agenda and send a signal about public opinion on the president’s policy mix throughout his second presidential term.
“Here is my promise: if the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, both of them… because of our tremendous strength and success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000,” he told a crowd at the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas.
“I’m asking you to pretend that I’m on the ballot,” he added.
Fiscal pressure
It is estimated that the total proposed “Trump dividend” payout would cost more than $1 trillion — raising questions about how such an expense would be funded and its impact on fiscal strain facing the Federal budget.
The potential payout compares to the $1.27 trillion the U.S. government has already spent paying interest on the national debt in the fiscal year-to-date, and the $1.36 trillion committed to defense spending in 2026.
The U.S. national deficit, which occurs when the federal government’s spending exceeds its revenues, is nearing $1.8 trillion for the fiscal year-to-date.
The government has spent more than $6 trillion between October and July, putting the deficit at around 5.8% of gross domestic product.
Meanwhile, U.S. government borrowing costs have risen sharply in recent weeks, amid concerns about sticky inflation, government Treasury buybacks and elevated national debt, which stood at 122.6% of GDP in the first quarter of the year.
Legal challenge
The proposal may also face legal obstacles.
Under U.S. federal law, offering or making a payment to induce someone to vote, withhold their vote, or vote for or against a candidate is a criminal offence, punishable by a fine, up to one year in prison, or both. A willful violation can carry up to two years’ imprisonment.
CNBC contacted the White House for clarification on the legal implications of Trump’s dividend proposal.
In July, a bipartisan panel found tech billionaire Elon Musk likely broke state law by giving $1 million checks to voters in the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election. The Wisconsin Elections Commission referred two complaints to the Brown County district attorney’s office, paving the way for prosecutors to decide if Musk should be charged.
Musk handed out checks in an effort to flip majority control of the court, spending millions backing Republican candidate Brad Schimel, who ultimately lost to Democrat-backed Susan Crawford.
The president has previously promised a series of payments to Americans that have yet to emerge.
Early into his second term, Trump backed the idea of a $5,000 “DOGE dividend.” The idea was to disburse savings achieved by cuts enacted by the now-defunct Department of Government Efficiency — then led by Musk — to the American population, but never materialized.
His proposed “tariff rebate,” a $2,000 payout funded by tariff revenue, has also failed to materialize. The idea unraveled when the Supreme Court ruled against the legality of Trump’s tariff regime.
During the Covid-19 pandemic, the first Trump administration and the Biden administration spent trillions of dollars on checks to households in a bid to stimulate the economy — a move that some experts have argued may have fueled a subsequent surge in inflation.
