Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS) drones are positioned on the tarmac at a base in the U.S. Central Command operating area.
Source: U.S. CENTCOM
The future of air power lies in autonomous platforms, and the United States, despite boasting the largest air force in the world, may not be in the lead.
This is according to Matt George, CEO of autonomous aircraft developer Merlin Labs.
Speaking to CNBC’s Morgan Brennan at CNBC’s CONVERGE LIVE event, George said that small and medium-sized autonomous platforms have dominated the wars in Iran and Ukraine.
Autonomous platforms include unmanned drones used for reconnaissance or to directly attack military targets with a carried payload. These drones are vastly cheaper and can be deployed faster than traditional weapons, prompting Western militaries to reconsider their spending priorities.
“I think the U.S. has figured out that … we are not necessarily behind, but we do not have the definitive lead, and we need to go invest behind those capabilities,” George said.
He added, “We know drones are being used right now in this conflict in Iran … as well [as] Ukraine too, which is really, you know, the first conflict that became a drone-led war.”
Kyiv used the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone in the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war, and Russia has also used Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones to attack Ukraine, as well as its own Lancet drones.
In the Middle East, Iran also used Shahed drones as it retaliated against Gulf countries after the U.S. and Israel conducted airstrikes on the country in February.
“We’ve … talked about all the really high end stuff in the U.S., but … we’ve also seen large manned platforms still be really vulnerable. We’ve seen large aircraft be put at risk by adversaries who are using much less expensive munitions and other forms of electronic warfare,” George said.
In June 2025, Ukraine’s security services launched a massive drone attack against Russian air assets using drones concealed in trucks, reportedly damaging more than 40 planes.
Iran also used drones to strike U.S. aircraft in Saudi Arabia, hitting air-to-air refueling tankers and early warning aircraft.
Cost disparity
The cost disparity in pitting autonomous air platforms against expensive air defense interceptors is coming into stark focus.
At the onset of the Ukraine war in 2022, a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies said: “Shooting $4 million missiles at $250,000 Russian cruise missiles might be justified if those missiles would hit sensitive targets. Shooting a $4 million missile at a $50,000 Iranian Shahed-136 drone would probably not.”
A PAC-3 interceptor missile used as part of the U.S.-made Patriot air defense system costs around $4 million, CSIS said.
This disparity has been seen again during the Iran war, when reports emerged that U.S. interceptor stocks in the Gulf were running critically low amid Iranian drone attacks.
In an April 23 article for The Conversation, Aaron Brynildson, law instructor at the University of Mississippi, wrote that “Russia or Iran don’t need every drone to hit its target. They just need to keep sending waves of them until their opponent runs out of expensive missiles to shoot back.”
George said he is now seeing a “real refocus” from Western countries to invest in autonomous technology. He pointed out that the U.S. defense budget allocated $75 billion for autonomous platforms and drones.
The budget the Pentagon is asking for its Defense Autonomous Working Group, or DAWG, reportedly spiked to $54.6 billion from just $225.9 million this year.
However, besides a massive budget, George believes the U.S. military needs to consider the speed of realizing such platforms.
The Air Force needs to deliver these capabilities “in like weeks and months and not years, which is traditionally how we’ve done things,” he said.
