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Artificial intelligence has prompted concerns that workers — particularly young professionals — could be replaced by advancing technology.
Yet signs are emerging that older workers are also affected, according to a new paper from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.
Workers aged 55-plus in AI-exposed industries are leaving their jobs more often, author Geoffrey Sanzenbacher, a professor of economics, told CNBC. Those transitions are equally driven by unemployment and voluntary reasons, he said.
“It’s a statistically significant effect,” Sanzenbacher said. “For some occupations, it can be quite large.”
3 ways AI may impact older workers’ careers
AI may affect the length of older workers’ careers in three ways, according to Sanzenbacher’s research.
Automation may replace older workers, prompting them to either become unemployed or leave the labor force completely, Sanzenbacher found.
Or the pressure to adopt AI may lead some workers to either seek jobs that do not involve those new advancements or retire altogether.
Alternatively, generative AI could allow people to work longer as productivity increases, pushing up wages and letting workers focus on engaging tasks, according to Sanzenbacher.
The research defines AI exposure based on the extent to which AI can be used to perform an occupation’s tasks. It draws on Current Population Survey data and information on AI exposure from Tufts University’s Digital Planet initiative, which studies the impact of digital innovations.
The research found that before the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, older workers in AI-exposed roles were significantly less likely to leave their jobs. However, after the launch of ChatGPT, they were somewhat more likely to transition out of work, including to unemployment.
AI may narrow differences in career lengths
Older workers who are more susceptible to AI changes tend to be white, are much more likely to have a college degree and tend to have higher earnings compared with workers with low AI exposure, according to Sanzenbacher’s research.
According to the research, based on Digital Planet’s AI exposure scores, the five careers with the highest AI exposure — and therefore more susceptible to changes — are:
- Web and digital interface designers
- Web developers
- Database architects
- Computer programmers
- Data scientists
The five careers with the lowest AI exposure are:
- Excavating and loading operations and mining workers
- Roof bolters and mining workers
- Orderlies
- Painting and spraying workers
- Fiberglass laminators and fabricators
This calls into question the perception that older workers in physically demanding jobs may have shorter career trajectories and therefore retire earlier than higher-educated, white-collar workers.
“AI exposure may reduce the gap in career length between low- and high-paying jobs,” Sanzenbacher wrote in the research.
Consequently, as policymakers consider possible changes to the retirement age, they should keep the potential effects of AI in mind, according to the research.
High-income workers may see Social Security cuts
New projections show the trust fund Social Security relies on to help pay retirement benefits may run out in late 2032, according to the latest annual report from the program’s trustees.
To restore Social Security’s solvency, policymakers may choose from a variety of possible changes, including raising the retirement age. When the last major reforms to the program were enacted in 1983, lawmakers opted to gradually increase the retirement age from 65 to 67.
Raising the age threshold may be considered in upcoming reforms, though some experts contend that change wouldn’t be a short-term fix. Policymakers may also opt to raise payroll taxes on high earners, a popular proposal among Democratic lawmakers.
“There’s a high probability that higher-income people see a bigger benefit cut than lower-income people from whatever happens with Social Security next,” Sanzenbacher said.
“These are the very people who therefore need to work longer,” he said.
Meanwhile, depending on how AI’s effects on the labor force play out, those same workers’ ability to do their job may also be affected, Sanzenbacher said.
What older workers can do to catch up
Older workers are adopting AI, but not as often as younger workers, Sanzenbacher said.
Recent AARP research has found workers see AI as both a threat and an opportunity. While 24% of the 1,015 adults ages 50 and over surveyed said that they see AI as a threat to their line of work, 19% said they see it as an opportunity. Meanwhile, 37% said both, according to the responses fielded in March.
Separate research from AARP and LinkedIn found that experienced professionals are more likely to occupy roles insulated from disruption caused by generative AI, with 49.4% of older workers compared with 42.2% of younger workers.
Older workers’ jobs are more likely to require skills that AI cannot easily replicate, according to the research, such as collaboration, judgment and leadership.
For older professionals who haven’t started using AI yet, it’s not too late, Vicki Salemi, a career expert at Monster, told CNBC.com via email.
Monster’s December WorkWatch report found that 42% of 1,504 surveyed workers don’t use AI at all. Among the workers who use it, the most popular applications include basic tasks such as email, scheduling and writing support, Monster found. Others are using it for advanced tasks, such as coding, automation or data analysis; job applications, including resumes and cover letters; or creative work, such as graphics, campaigns and content, according to the research.
Older workers may want to adopt a two-pronged approach to adapting in today’s labor force — becoming AI-literate while also doubling down on soft skills, Salemi said.
A good place to start may be to learn the AI tools your employer is already using, which may help maximize your time for deeper thinking, she said.
At the same time, don’t forget to highlight soft skills like communication, relationship-building and problem-solving, whether you’re seeking to stand out in your current role or in a job you’re applying for.
“When you can show you possess strong soft skills coupled with the ability to evolve and grow with new technology, it can be a green light for your candidacy,” Salemi said.
