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Drug gangs are poised to exploit technological advances in AI and other fields to make more potent products and better avoid detection, the EU Drugs Agency’s executive director has warned.
Lorraine Nolan told the FT in an interview that the market in illegal substances was evolving rapidly as traffickers created new designer chemicals and sophisticated smuggling methods to conceal their contraband.
Nolan’s comments highlight how the illegal drugs industry is benefiting from great access to hardware such as drones for smuggling and digital capabilities including illicit online chemical marketplaces. Machine learning-boosted chemical synthesis methods that are helping pharmaceutical companies can also be harnessed by international crime groups.
“Technology is now one of the key driving factors which is enabling the rapid evolution of the European drugs market,” Nolan said, adding that this included contributing to illicit production.
The variety of illegal substances sold on Europe’s streets was becoming “ever more unpredictable” as previously unseen products popped up, Nolan said ahead of the launch of her agency’s annual European Drug Report on Tuesday. Europe was experiencing increased trafficking and was also “emerging as a synthetic production hub”, she said.
Between 2014 and 2024, EU seizure quantities rose sharply for drugs including methamphetamine, cocaine, MDMA, amphetamine and herbal cannabis.
New psychoactive substances, such as potent synthetic opioids, were detected for the first time at a rate of roughly one a week last year, said the report, which includes data from the EU’s 27 states, Norway and Turkey. Seizures reached a record high by quantity in 2024.
Vapes containing drugs including synthetic and semi-synthetic forms of cannabis have been seized in EU member states, stoking fears they could be used as delivery methods for other harmful substances.
Criminal groups were increasingly devising new “designer” drug precursors to avoid detection, Nolan said. These act in a similar way to existing precursors but are structurally different and so can evade existing product blacklists.
AI could assist in devising these illicit substances in a similar way to how it was used by pharmaceutical companies to predict possible molecular structures that would have particular therapeutic effects, Nolan said.
“It absolutely can be used in terms of designer chemistry and the production of illicit drugs,” she said. “When you look at the tech boost in the medicines field and how it is accelerating drug discovery, it is exactly the same principle on the illicit side.”
Still, new technologies including AI could contribute to health and social responses to illicit drugs through “earlier detection of emerging harms, tailored interventions and service access”, Nolan added.
The EU Drugs Agency was co-operating with other authorities and tech companies to assess the use of AI and other technologies in the illicit substances market, Nolan said. The agency has enhanced its early warning systems for new psychoactive substances and added a new alert mechanism to communicate risks, including to laboratories, law enforcement and health and social services.
The European Commission announced plans late last year to overhaul regulation of drug precursors, in part to keep up with the pace of change in the drugs market.
The International Narcotics Control Board, which monitors implementation of UN drug control conventions, last year warned that the rapid spread of illicit synthetic drugs was a “deadly problem that presents a serious threat to public health”.
In April, the INCB expanded its global lists of synthetic substances with no known legitimate use, including fentanyl-related substances, non-fentanyl opioids, novel benzodiazepines and analogues of ketamine.
Chemical concealment of drug shipments into Europe is becoming increasingly intricate, the EU Drug Agency report said. In 2024, member states uncovered facilities that were being used to extract cocaine hidden chemically within plastics or other carrier materials.
Established drugs such as cannabis and cocaine were becoming more widely available in the EU, often at higher strength and lower prices, Nolan said. So-called polysubstance use of multiple drugs has become common, increasing health risks and complicating the treatment of problems such as overdoses.
