The battle for Number 10 is over.
An overwhelming number of Labour MPs have nominated Andy Burnham. Under Labour’s rules he needs trade union support too.
He crossed that threshold today. He is moving into Number 10 on Monday.
But the beneath-the-radar battle for Number 11 Downing St is continuing. Whoever Burnham appoints as chancellor – and next-door neighbour in Downing Street – will send a signal of his intent both to politicians and to the bond markets.
The official line from team Burnham is that no decision has been taken.
Announcements on cabinet posts are not expected to be made until Monday, when Burnham moves to Number 10.
Discussions have been taking place amongst a tight group of people – the next Number 10 chief of staff James Purnell, Louise Haigh and the former MP who stood aside for Burnham, Josh Simons.
When Burnham won the subsequent Makerfield by-election the widespread assumption was that the Energy Secretary Ed Miliband would move to the Treasury.
But there has been both noisy and more subtle attempts to influence Burnham’s choice of chancellor – ranging from unions with workers in the oil and gas industry and who distrust Miliband’s instincts, to Sir Keir Starmer’s unpaid ‘cost of living’ tsar Lord Walker, the boss of Iceland.
He runs supermarkets but argues that it’s the bond markets that would “freak out” if an “ideological” chancellor was installed in the Treasury.
In recent days, a number of MPs close to Burnham – who have no animus to the energy secretary – believe the likelihood of appointing Miliband has lessened significantly.
The caveat is that they are not making the decisions, but are discerning the mood.
Those close to Miliband believe that it’s not only highly possible that he will still be appointed but highly desirable too.
They point to his credentials. He has an economics background, was an adviser in the Treasury under Gordon Brown and chaired the Council of Economic Advisers.
He has ministerial experience in the last Labour government and this one. He knows his way around. A colleague put it like this: “He can make the Treasury do what it doesn’t want to do.”
Miliband has offered advice to Burnham regularly and recently and would be in lock-step with Burnham in the task of spreading growth, in Burnham’s words, “to every postcode”.
As for the bond markets, one supporter has stressed his adherence to the fiscal rules on debt and borrowing, and another put it more colourfully: “He isn’t Che Guevara.”
Many in the parliamentary party would expect him to move to Number 11. If he isn’t, some on the party’s soft left will think that Burnham has refused the first fence in the race to change Britain.
