Investing.com– SpaceX’s () biggest long-term competitive threat is China, even though the U.S. rocket company retains a commanding lead in reusable launch technology and satellite operations, Bernstein said in a recent research note.
The brokerage said China’s recent successful landing of the first-stage booster from its Long March 10B rocket marked a significant milestone that arrived around six months earlier than it had expected, highlighting the country’s accelerating progress in space launch capabilities.
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Bernstein said China remains well behind SpaceX, noting the Long March 10 has yet to demonstrate booster reuse, while SpaceX has been reusing Falcon 9 boosters for nearly a decade and completed 165 launches last year.
China will need to prove rapid relaunch capabilities and develop high-rate manufacturing before it can match SpaceX’s launch cadence, the brokerage said.
Still, Bernstein argued China poses the most credible long-term challenge because of its substantial state resources and ambitious space goals, including a planned crewed lunar landing around 2030 and proposals to deploy more than 200,000 low-Earth orbit satellites.
The brokerage said the growing U.S.-China competition amounts to a new space race that could bolster government support for SpaceX and other U.S. aerospace companies.
It maintained an “Outperform” rating and a $239 price target on SpaceX, citing the company’s lead in fully reusable Starship technology as a key long-term advantage.
