NANJING, CHINA – JULY 09: Aerial view of new energy vehicles waiting for shipment at Longtan Port Area of Nanjing Port on July 9, 2026 in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province of China.
Yang Suping | Visual China Group | Getty Images
China’s trade growth accelerated far more than expected in June, as booming global demand for AI hardware and a rush by U.S. retailers to beat anticipated tariff hikes turbocharged shipments.
Overall exports rose 27% from a year earlier in U.S. dollar value terms, the strongest since October 2021, customs data showed Tuesday, quickening from the 19.4% gain in May and sharply beat economists’ estimates for a 18.2% growth.
Imports grew 36% in June, the largest jump since June 2021, gaining pace from the 27.4% growth in May and sharply beating economists’ forecast for a 24% growth. The trade surplus stood at $125.6 billion in June.
China’s exports to the U.S. jumped around 14% last month while imports grew 26%, according to CNBC calculation of the official data. The outbound shipment to the Southeast Asian nations soared about 35% while imports rose 27%.
Shipment to the European Union rose 18.5% and imports from the bloc grew more than 9%.
Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, attributed the export strength to frontloading momentum in shipments both to the U.S. directly and those rerouted through ASEAN.
Factory activity accelerated in June as U.S.-bound orders recorded sharp year-on-year gains, a survey by China Beige Book showed last month, pushing up freight rates. Manufacturers are bracing for additional tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump’s Section 301 probes as the 10% broad-based duty is set to expire on July 24.
Beijing has grappled with a deepening supply-demand imbalance, as strong industrial output and exports tied to the global AI investment boom continue to power headline growth, even as consumption and private investment weakens amid a prolonged property downturn and volatile global oil prices.
Exports will likely remain strong in the second half of the year, said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, potentially further increasing trade tensions between China and trading partners, particularly Europe. Brussels and Beijing set up a trade and investment consultation mechanism last month aimed at rebalancing bilateral trade, with European officials targeting October for “tangible results.”
The global AI investment boom has also helped to cushion the fallout from the Middle East conflict and a global oil shock. Chinese exports of integrated circuits in June more than doubled from the same period last year to $38 billion.
The country’s crude imports dropped 41% from a year earlier to 29.3 million tons, according to CNBC calculation, reportedly the lowest level in nearly a decade. In the first half-year, China’s total oil imports dropped 11% from a year ago in terms of volume.
China is expected to release its gross domestic product growth for the second quarter on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect growth to have slowed to 4.5% in the second quarter, after a solid 5% in the first quarter.
Industrial output and retail sales for June, also due Wednesday, are projected to expand 4.7% and shrink 0.1%, respectively. Urban investment is estimated to decline 4.9% in the first half-year, deepening from 4.1% in the first five months, according to a Reuters poll.
Investors are now looking to an expected Politburo meeting in late July for clues on stimulus that could shape policy for the rest of the year, although analysts expect no meaningful stimulus unless growth slows more sharply, given resilient exports and Beijing’s focus on curbing excess factory capacity to fight deflation.
