Investing.com– Goldman Sachs cut its global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing high memory chip prices that continued to weigh on demand, even as it forecast product mix to keep shifting toward premium devices.
The brokerage reduced its global smartphone volume estimates by 4% and 3% to 1.14 billion and 1.17 billion units for 2026 and 2027, respectively, implying a 10% decline this year followed by 3% growth in 2027. That compared with its previous forecast of a 6% drop and a 2% rise.
Goldman Sachs also introduced a 2028 shipment estimate of 1.18 billion units, up 1% year-on-year.
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The investment back attributed its softer outlook largely to rising memory chip costs, as outsized demand from the artificial intelligence industry quashed supplies and saw major memory chip makers divert more capacity towards servicing the AI industry.
Despite the volume cuts, the bank expected the smartphone market’s value to keep growing, forecasting a 3% rise to $596 billion in 2026, followed by 2% increases each in 2027 and 2028 to $606 billion and $621 billion. Higher memory costs and a shift toward premium phones priced above $600 would support revenue growth even as unit sales fell, it said.
Goldman Sachs expects to maintain its global lead in smartphone sales with a forecasted 246 million units sold in 2026, followed by with a forecasted 235 million units.
The bank remained positive on foldable phones, citing new entrants among major brands in the second half of 2026 and new form factors such as tri-fold designs. Apple in particular is expected to unveil its first ever foldable later in the year.
It cut its foldable shipment forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 10% and 7%, respectively, but still expected foldable penetration to rise to 3.6% in 2026, 5.9% in 2027 and 6.8% in 2028, equivalent to 41 million, 69 million and 80 million units.
Premium smartphones priced above $600 were set to grow at a 5% compound annual rate through 2028, reaching 402 million units and accounting for 34% of total volume, up from 29% in 2025, Goldman Sachs said.
The mid-range segment, priced between $200 and $600, was expected to shrink at a 2% annual rate as consumers grew more conservative amid a lack of major technology upgrades, the bank said.
Entry-level demand below $200 was forecast to grow modestly, supported by the migration from 4G to 5G networks in developing markets, though that segment was seen as most exposed to rising memory costs given price-sensitive buyers, Goldman Sachs added.
