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Odds that gas prices will go above $4 per gallon by the end of this month have jumped to 90% from 56% on Kalshi in the last two days.
Kalshi traders now see a 93% chance that gas prices will go above $4 per gallon and 63% that it will go over $4.10. The contract, which asks what the gas price in the U.S. will be this month, will be verified by AAA.
Wednesday’s national gas price is at $3.89, about 3 cents higher than Tuesday’s, according to AAA.
Last month’s average crossed $4, but the highest national gas price average this year was on May 21, when it hit $4.56. Traders on Kalshi see extremely low odds, less than a 5% chance, that gas prices will go over $4.50 again by the end of this month.
The gas price speculation comes as the U.S. ended its ceasefire with Iran last week and has relaunched strikes. The U.S. Central Command wrote in an X post that it launched a second wave of strikes on Iran at 3 p.m. ET Wednesday afternoon. This followed an earlier round of strikes on Wednesday morning.
“The strikes are designed to further degrade military capabilities Iranian forces have used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” the U.S. Central Command wrote in an X post on Wednesday morning.
Oil prices have been rising for three straight days. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for August delivery closed Wednesday at $79.60 per barrel, up 26 cents, or 0.3% from the prior day. Meanwhile, the September futures contract for international benchmark Brent settled at $84.95 per barrel, also up 0.3% on the day.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
