Yields on U.S. Treasurys were slightly lower early Tuesday, easing losses in the previous session as traders weigh up central banks’ response to renewed inflation fears.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield — the key benchmark for U.S. government borrowing — was more than 1 basis points lower on Tuesday morning, at 4.6073%. The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield, which is more sensitive to political risks, was last seen holding steady, at 5.1428%.
The 2-year Treasury note yield, which tends to react in line with short-term Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, was also more than 2 basis points lower at 4.0695%.
One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Treasurys were taking a breather after yields soared on Monday, with the U.S. 10-year note yield touching its highest level in 15 months at one point.
It came as a Bank of America survey published on Tuesday revealed 62% of global fund manager respondents expect 30-year Treasury yields to hit 6%, which would mark the highest level since late 1999 and an increase of roughly 86 basis points from the current level. This compares to just 20% of respondents who said they are targeting a 30-year yield of 4%.
Yields on 10-year German bunds dropped more than 1 basis point to 3.1471% early on Tuesday. Despite easing, the yield on 10-year U.K. Gilts — the benchmark for Britain’s government debt — still remains above 5%, at 5.115%.
Yields on longer-term government debt in the U.K. and Germany also remain elevated. The yield on German 30-year bunds stood at 3.6836% on Tuesday, with Britain’s 30-year Gilt yield rising less than 1 basis point to 5.773%.
Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist at Jefferies, said the prevailing sentiment across global bond markets is being driven by the inflationary impact, primarily caused by soaring energy costs, as well as deficit concerns, and, in the U.K., country-specific political turmoil.
“Even if we get a [Middle East] deal… oil is not going back to pre-war levels. We think it’s going to be 25-30% in higher in six months’ time,” Kumar told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Tuesday.
The price of Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, was last seen 1.5% lower at $110.38 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was flat at $108.67.
Then there’s the deficit impact. “Every government is going to provide subsidies for households for fuel — which means we have more borrowing, and that’s a pressure at the long end of the curve.”
However, Kumar noted that while the market is currently pricing in rate hikes, he said that “it’s not justified” given that inflation is likely to rise as much as growth is likely to fall.
