One-ounce gold bars at the Valcambi SA precious metals refinery in Balerna, Switzerland, on Friday, Sept. 9, 2025. Valcambi SA, Switzerland’s largest refiner, processes up to 2,000 tons of precious metals a year at its site in Balerna on the border with Italy. Photographer: Francesca Volpi/Bloomberg via Getty Images
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They are called gold bugs for a reason, because they sure are hard to get rid of.
Despite a 25% decline in gold from its high in January, proponents of the precious metal are storming into bullish call positions after almost two months of sideways action gives way to a rally Friday following weak jobs data.
Almost $100 million of call options in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF were likely bought on Friday, SpotGamma data show, compared to about $25 million of puts bought. It’s the same for the miners: over $80 million of GDX calls were bought, compared to just over $9 million in puts. Options volume in both surged, according to Cboe LiveVol data, with GLD on pace for twice its 30-day average and GDX quadrupling its typical trading volume.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), 5 years
After an incredible 100% year-long rally through January, gold prices reversed this year as Treasury yields and the dollar firmed in the first half of the year and the explosive bull market in tech stocks vacuumed up investor dollars from around the world.
The aggressive call-buying suggests gold bulls think regime change could be afoot. After touching 4.7 percent, the 10-year yield stalled out this week, stabilizing below multi-year highs as the dollar pulled back to the lowest since mid-June.
Despite speculation over interest-rate hikes by new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh, a weak U.S. jobs report on Friday arguably bolstered the case for doves. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined in July, falling by 23,000 amid a drop of 53,000 government jobs.
U.S. 10-year Treasury, YTD
Gold prices typically move inversely to real interest rates. They also might be getting a boost from foreign buyers, according to the Arora Report’s Nigam Arora.
“The trigger for this move off the lows a few days ago was very aggressive buying by Chinese individual investors in the domestic gold ETFs,” Arora said via text. “The catalyst appears to be Beijing’s latest moves to make it harder for Chinese capital to move offshore.”
