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Polymarket is moving deeper into private markets — and this time, the contracts are tied to companies most investors can talk about, but still cannot actually buy.
The company is launching prediction markets tied to private company milestones, including valuations, IPO timing and secondary-market activity for names like OpenAI and Anthropic.
Nasdaq Private Market will serve as the exclusive resolution data provider, supplying the information that determines whether these contracts pay out.
These event contracts might solve one of the biggest frustrations for many investors.
Many companies create enormous value and brand recognition before they ever go public, more than 1600 are unicorns valued at a billion dollars or more, according to Nasdaq. But only accredited investors, an institution or someone very well connected can invest directly in those private companies.
Ordinary investors are typically sidelined.
Starting today, Polymarket’s contracts let traders take a position on whether a specific private-market event happens, though without equity ownership, shares or voting rights.
For example, Polymarket currently lists a market on whether OpenAI will have a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, and another tied to whether Anthropic reaches a valuation of at least $500 billion in 2026. There is also a contract asking whether Anthropic will be valued higher than OpenAI at any point this year.
These markets resolve using data from Nasdaq Private Market and in a first, it will make the valuation data publicly available for free, without a subscription.
Kalshi also offers some event contracts on whether private companies will IPO, but they resolve based on an amalgamation of sources including company sites, the SEC, and a slew of news outlets. It doesn’t offer markets on private company valuations.
Private company boom
NPM’s own data shows why these contracts could get attention. On its Anthropic company page, the share-price chart shows an estimated NPM price of $477.02 as of May 5, up more than 1,500%. It also lists a highest bid of $260.80, a lowest offer of $188.50 and a last trade of $234.00. The page says the NPM price is based on market activity, publicly sourced valuation data and proprietary information.
These contracts give individuals a way to engage with private-market value creation earlier, while giving institutions another real-time read on how traders are pricing private-company momentum.
There may be advantages for institutional investors as well. Secondary-market prices, funding rounds and IPO timing are still fragmented compared with public equities. A liquid prediction market around those events could become another signal, especially for companies where public comps are imperfect and fresh private-market data is hard to find.
The real bet isn’t necessarily on OpenAI or Anthropic, it’s whether private-market information fuels contracts that are clear enough to trade, liquid enough to matter and reliable enough to resolve.
Disclosure: Kalshi and CNBC have a commercial relationship which includes a minority investment.
